What If?

I often get asked in various forums, What If....?

In this case I shall be exploring, What if I backed the outsider in each Premiership game?

Well if you put £10 on every outsider in the 760 games from the 09/10 and 10/11 seasons:

Total Matches: 760
Bets Void: 15
Bets Won: 144
Bets Lost: 601
Total Profit/(Loss): (£704.17)

The void bets refer to matches where there is no outsider, i.e. the odds for the draw are the same as the odds for the outside winner.

So a big fat loss.

However, let's split this up a little, 09/10, 380 games:

Total Matches: 380
Bets Void: 8
Bets Won: 67
Bets Lost: 305
Total Profit/(Loss): (£647)

Which leaves the loss for the 10/11 season at £57.17.

It may appear clear then that backing the outsider is fruitless.

To find the fruit we must take a look at the home, draw, away splits:

Away Outsider:

£907.50 loss in 09/10
£110.67 loss in 10/11
£1018.17 loss in total.

Draw Outsider:

£49.50 loss in 09/10
£7.00 loss in 10/11
£56.50 loss in total.

Home Outsider:
£310.00 profit in 09/10
£60.50 profit in 10/11
£370.50 profit in total.

So if you look beyond the headline numbers, there is evidence that backing the home outsider is profitable!