Level 3 vs Level 4

The previous post described levels of gamblers. This post aims to illustrate the difference in success between level 3 betting and level 4 betting.

In truth we will be using level 5 betting to illustrate the point, because the probabilities calculated are done via a model. The sample is the 760 Premier League matches from the 2009/10 and 2010/11 seasons.

Level 3: Betting on the event with the highest probability of occurring.

Matches Played: 760
Bets Void: 6
Bets Won: 369
Bets Lost: 385
Total Profit/(Loss): (£335.09)

Note: Void Bets refer to outcomes which had the highest probability of selection e.g. 40% chance of Draw, 40% chance of Home Win, 20% chance of Away Win. These matches were void. £10 Stakes were used.

Level 4: Betting on the event with the highest expectation.

Matches Played: 760
Bets Void: 15
Bets Won: 306
Bets Lost: 439
Total Profit/(Loss): £935.39

Note: Void Bets refer to matches where there is no positive value in all three outcomes. £10 Stakes were used.

Things to note here are that the second method produces a significant profit, even though the percentage of bets won in level 4 is less than in level 3. By seeking value instead of seeking the most likely result we are able to make more money!