Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 19

Liverpool-Newcastle -- Newcastle @ 6/1
Man Utd-Blackburn -- Man Utd @ 2/13
Arsenal-QPR -- QPR @ 12/1
Bolton-Wolves -- Draw @ 12/5
Chelsea-Villa -- Draw @ 5/1
Norwich-Fulham -- Norwich @ 13/8
Stoke-Wigan -- Wigan @ 9/2
Swansea-Spurs -- Draw @ 14/5
West Brom-Everton -- West Brom @ 13/8
Sunderland-Man City -- Draw @ 10/3

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 18 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 18, I achieved a profit of £83.17.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Gameweek 5: -£25
Gameweek 6: £9.33
Gameweek 7: £61.33
Gameweek 8: £47
Gameweek 9: £89.70
Gameweek 10: -£30
Gameweek 11: -£77
Gameweek 12: -£33
Gameweek 13: -£5
Gameweek 14: £87.05
Gameweek 15: £74.98
Gameweek 16: -£70.53
Gameweek 17: -£26.00
Gameweek 18: £83.17
Total: £343.00

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 18

Chelsea-Fulham -- Draw @ 9/2
Bolton-Newcastle -- Bolton @ 28/17
Liverpool-Blackburn -- Blackburn @ 33/2
Man Utd-Wigan -- Man Utd @ 1/6
Sunderland-Everton -- Sunderland @ 17/11
West Brom-Man City -- Draw @ 15/4
Stoke-Villa -- Draw @ 5/2
Arsenal-Wolves -- Wolves @ 14/1
Swansea-QPR -- Draw @ 12/5
Norwich-Spurs -- Draw @ 14/5

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 17 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 17, I achieved a loss of £26.00.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Gameweek 5: -£25
Gameweek 6: £9.33
Gameweek 7: £61.33
Gameweek 8: £47
Gameweek 9: £89.70
Gameweek 10: -£30
Gameweek 11: -£77
Gameweek 12: -£33
Gameweek 13: -£5
Gameweek 14: £87.05
Gameweek 15: £74.98
Gameweek 16: -£70.53
Gameweek 17: -£26.00
Total: £259.83

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 17

Wolves-Norwich -- Draw @ 12/5
Blackburn-Bolton -- Blackburn @ 15/13
Villa-Arsenal -- Draw @ 11/4
Man City-Stoke -- Stoke @ 14/1
Newcastle-West Brom -- Draw @ 5/2
Everton-Swansea -- Swansea @ 6/1
Fulham-Man Utd -- Draw @ 14/5
QPR-Sunderland -- QPR @ 6/4
Wigan-Liverpool -- Draw @ 3/1
Spurs-Chelsea -- Spurs @ 13/8

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 16 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 16, I achieved a loss of £70.53.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Gameweek 5: -£25
Gameweek 6: £9.33
Gameweek 7: £61.33
Gameweek 8: £47
Gameweek 9: £89.70
Gameweek 10: -£30
Gameweek 11: -£77
Gameweek 12: -£33
Gameweek 13: -£5
Gameweek 14: £87.05
Gameweek 15: £74.98
Gameweek 16: -£70.53
Total: £285.83

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 16

Blackburn-West Brom -- Blackburn @ 16/11
Everton-Norwich -- Norwich @ 61/10
Fulham-Bolton -- Bolton @ 11/2
Newcastle-Swansea -- Newcastle @ 5/6
Wolves-Stoke -- Stoke @ 37/19
Wigan-Chelsea -- Wigan @ 10/1
QPR-Man Utd -- Draw @ 17/5
Villa-Liverpool -- Villa @ 10/3
Spurs-Sunderland -- Draw @ 15/4
Man City-Arsenal -- Arsenal @ 9/2

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 15 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 15, I achieved a profit of £87.05.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Gameweek 5: -£25
Gameweek 6: £9.33
Gameweek 7: £61.33
Gameweek 8: £47
Gameweek 9: £89.70
Gameweek 10: -£30
Gameweek 11: -£77
Gameweek 12: -£33
Gameweek 13: -£5
Gameweek 14: £87.05
Gameweek 15: £74.98
Total: £356.36

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 15

Arsenal-Everton -- Draw @ 13/4
Bolton-Villa -- Villa @ 21/10
Liverpool-QPR -- Liverpool @ 4/11
Man Utd-Wolves -- Wolves @ 14/1
Norwich-Newcastle -- Draw @ 5/2
Swansea-Fulham -- Swansea @ 13/8
West Brom-Wigan -- Wigan @ 5/1
Sunderland-Blackburn -- Sunderland @ 10/11
Stoke-Spurs -- Draw @ 5/2
Chelsea-Man City -- Chelsea @ 6/4

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 14 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 14, I achieved a profit of £87.05.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Gameweek 5: -£25
Gameweek 6: £9.33
Gameweek 7: £61.33
Gameweek 8: £47
Gameweek 9: £89.70
Gameweek 10: -£30
Gameweek 11: -£77
Gameweek 12: -£33
Gameweek 13: -£5
Gameweek 14: £87.05
Total: £281.38

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 14

Newcastle-Chelsea -- Newcastle @ 37/13
Blackburn-Swansea -- Blackburn @ 6/5
Man City-Norwich -- Man City @ 1/5
QPR-West Brom -- Draw @ 27/11
Spurs-Bolton -- Draw @ 47/10
Wigan-Arsenal -- Draw @ 31/10
Villa-Man Utd -- Draw @ 14/5
Everton-Stoke -- Stoke @ 19/4
Wolves-Sunderland -- Wolves @ 6/4
Fulham-Liverpool -- Fulham @ 13/5

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 13 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 13, I achieved a loss of £5.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Gameweek 5: -£25
Gameweek 6: £9.33
Gameweek 7: £61.33
Gameweek 8: £47
Gameweek 9: £89.70
Gameweek 10: -£30
Gameweek 11: -£77
Gameweek 12: -£33
Gameweek 13: -£5
Total: £194.33

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 13

Stoke-Blackburn -- Draw @ 11/4
Bolton-Everton -- Draw @ 40/17
Chelsea-Wolves -- Wolves @ 14/1
Man Utd-Newcastle -- Draw @ 4/1
Norwich-QPR -- Draw @ 27/11
Sunderland-Wigan -- Sunderland @ 3/4
West Brom-Spurs -- Draw @ 13/5
Arsenal-Fulham -- Draw @ 7/2
Swansea-Villa -- Swansea @ 13/10
Liverpool-Man City -- Man City @ 17/10

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 12 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 12, I achieved a loss of £33.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Gameweek 5: -£25
Gameweek 6: £9.33
Gameweek 7: £61.33
Gameweek 8: £47
Gameweek 9: £89.70
Gameweek 10: -£30
Gameweek 11: -£77
Gameweek 12: -£33
Total: £199.33

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 12

Norwich-Arsenal -- Norwich @ 9/2
Everton-Wolves -- Draw @ 3/1
Man City-Newcastle -- Draw @ 19/4
Stoke-QPR -- Draw @ 13/5
Sunderland-Fulham -- Draw @ 23/10
West Brom-Bolton -- Draw @ 5/2
Wigan-Blackburn -- Draw @ 12/5
Swansea-Man Utd -- Draw @ 16/5
Chelsea-Liverpool -- Draw @ 13/5
Spurs-Villa -- Draw @ 10/3

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 11 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 11, I achieved a loss of £77.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Gameweek 5: -£25
Gameweek 6: £9.33
Gameweek 7: £61.33
Gameweek 8: £47
Gameweek 9: £89.70
Gameweek 10: -£30
Gameweek 11: -£77
Total: £232.33

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 11

Newcastle-Everton -- Newcastle @ 13/10
Arsenal-West Brom -- Draw @ 19/5
Aston Villa-Norwich -- Draw @ 45/17
Blackburn-Chelsea -- Draw @ 7/2
Liverpool-Swansea -- Swansea @ 11/1
Man Utd-Sunderland -- Sunderland @ 14/1
QPR-Man City -- Draw @ 17/4
Wolves-Wigan -- Draw @ 5/2
Bolton-Stoke -- Stoke @ 11/5
Fulham-Spurs -- Draw @ 12/5

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 10 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 10, I achieved a loss of £77.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Gameweek 5: -£25
Gameweek 6: £9.33
Gameweek 7: £61.33
Gameweek 8: £47
Gameweek 9: £89.70
Gameweek 10: -£30
Total: £309.33

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 10

Everton-Man Utd -- Draw @ 27/10
Chelsea-Arsenal -- Chelsea @ 7/10
Man City-Wolves -- Wolves @ 25/1
Norwich-Blackburn -- Draw @ 13/5
Sunderland-Aston Villa -- Draw @ 12/5
Swansea-Bolton -- Draw @ 5/2
Wigan-Fulham -- Draw @ 23/10
West Brom-Liverpool -- Draw @ 5/2
Spurs-QPR -- Draw @ 4/1
Stoke-Newcastle -- Draw @ 23/10

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 9 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 9, I achieved a profit of £47.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Gameweek 5: -£25
Gameweek 6: £9.33
Gameweek 7: £61.33
Gameweek 8: £47
Gameweek 9: £89.70
Total: £339.33

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 9

Wolves-Swansea -- Draw @ 12/5
Aston Villa-West Brom -- Aston Villa @ 6/5
Bolton-Sunderland -- Sunderland @ 27/11
Newcastle-Wigan -- Newcastle @ 8/13
Liverpool-Norwich -- Norwich @ 12/1
Arsenal-Stoke -- Draw @ 10/3
Fulham-Everton -- Fulham @ 7/5
Man Utd-Man City -- Draw @ 5/2
Blackburn-Spurs -- Draw @ 13/5
QPR-Chelsea -- QPR @ 19/2

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 8 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 8, I achieved a profit of £47.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Gameweek 5: -£25
Gameweek 6: £9.33
Gameweek 7: £61.33
Gameweek 8: £47
Total: £249.63

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 8

Liverpool-Man Utd -- Draw @ 23/10
Man City-Aston Villa -- Draw @ 22/5
Norwich-Swansea -- Norwich @ 6/5
QPR-Blackburn -- Draw @ 5/2
Stoke-Fulham -- Stoke @ 13/10
Wigan-Bolton -- Draw @ 40/17
Chelsea-Everton -- Everton @ 46/5
West Brom-Wolves -- Wolves @ 3/1
Arsenal-Sunderland -- Draw @ 7/2
Newcastle-Spurs -- Draw @ 12/5

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 7 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 7, I achieved a profit of £61.33.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Gameweek 5: -£25
Gameweek 6: £9.33
Gameweek 7: £61.33
Total: £202.63

Bolton vs Chelsea Match Preview

Bolton playing home with win probability of 33% or Less: P13 W1 D2 L10
Chelsea playing away with win probability of 67% or more: P13 W9 D3 L1

Combined record for Home team: P24* W2 D5 L17

Goals (0/1/2/3/4/5/6+): 0/1/6/4/7/4/2

Over/Under 0.5: 24/0
Over/Under 1.5: 23/1
Over/Under 2.5: 17/7
Over/Under 3.5: 13/11
Over/Under 4.5: 6/18
Over/Under 5.5: 2/22

*Delete two games for double counting i.e. games between Bolton vs Chelsea.

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 7

Everton-Liverpool -- Everton @ 22/10
Aston Villa-Wigan -- Aston Villa @ 4/6
Blackburn-Man City -- Man City @ 8/15
Man Utd-Norwich-- Norwich @ 22/1
Sunderland-West Brom -- Draw @ 12/5
Wolves-Newcastle -- Newcastle @ 2/1
Bolton-Chelsea -- Chelsea @ 8/15
Fulham-QPR -- Draw @ 5/2
Swansea-Stoke -- Swansea @ 9/5
Spurs-Arsenal -- Spurs @ 6/5

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 6 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 6, I achieved a profit of £9.33.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Gameweek 5: -£25
Gameweek 6: £9.33
Total: £141.30

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 6

Man City-Everton -- Draw @ 62/17
Arsenal-Bolton -- Draw @ 4/1
Chelsea-Swansea -- Swansea @ 19/1
Liverpool-Wolves -- Draw @ 4/1
Newcastle-Blackburn -- Draw @ 13/5
West Brom-Fulham -- Draw @ 23/10
Wigan-Tottenham -- Wigan @ 41/10
Stoke-Man Utd -- Draw @ 10/3
QPR-Aston Villa -- Draw @ 23/10
Norwich-Sunderland -- Draw @ 12/5

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 5 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 5, I achieved a loss of £25.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Gameweek 5: -£25
Total: £131.97

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 5

Blackburn-Arsenal -- Draw @ 27/10
Villa-Newcastle -- Draw @ 5/2
Bolton-Norwich -- Draw @ 11/4
Everton-Wigan -- Draw @ 31/10
Swansea-West Brom -- Draw @ 23/10
Wolves-QPR -- Draw @ 13/5
Spurs-Liverpool -- Draw @ 12/5
Fulham-Man City -- Draw @ 3/1
Sunderland-Stoke -- Draw @ 23/10
Man Utd-Chelsea -- Draw @ 27/10

Ten games this matchday, 10 draws, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

For completeness I selected the Everton-Wigan game as a draw, however Wigan @ 7/1 presents marginally better value.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 4 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 4, I achieved a profit of £40.97.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Gameweek 4: £40.97
Total: £156.97

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 4

Arsenal-Swansea -- Swansea @ 11/1
Everton-Villa -- Draw @ 12/5
Man City-Wigan -- Wigan @ 22/1
Stoke-Liverpool -- Stoke @ 45/17
Sunderland-Chelsea -- Draw @ 29/10
Wolves-Spurs -- Draw @ 27/11
Bolton-Man Utd -- Draw @ 18/5
Norwich-West Brom -- Draw @ 12/5
Fulham-Blackburn -- Draw @ 11/4
QPR-Newcastle -- Draw @ 23/10

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 3 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 3, I achieved a loss of £33.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Gameweek 3: -£33
Total: £116

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 3

Aston Villa-Wolves -- Draw @ 12/5
Wigan-QPR -- Draw @ 23/10
Blackburn-Everton -- Draw @ 23/10
Chelsea-Norwich -- Norwich @ 19/1
Swansea-Sunderland -- Draw @ 23/10
Liverpool-Bolton -- Draw @ 18/5
Newcastle-Fulham -- Draw @ 12/5
Tottenham-Man City -- Draw @ 12/5
West Brom-Stoke -- Draw @ 12/5
Man Utd-Arsenal -- Draw @ 7/2

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 2 Results

Having staked £100 on the 10 Premiership games in gameweek 2, I achieved a profit of £53.

Gameweek 1: £96
Gameweek 2: £53
Total: £149

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 2

Sunderland-Newcastle -- Draw @ 23/10
Arsenal-Liverpool -- Arsenal @ 13/8
Aston Villa-Blackburn -- Draw @ 13/5
Everton-QPR -- QPR @ 15/2
Swansea-Wigan -- Draw @ 5/2
Chelsea-West Brom -- West Brom @ 23/2
Norwich-Stoke -- Draw @ 23/10
Wolves-Fulham -- Draw @ 23/10
Bolton-Man City -- Draw @ 13/5
Man Utd-Tottenham -- Draw @ 3/1

Ten games this matchday, £10 stakes on each, total stake £100.

Madness Masks Mourinho's Madrid Magic

The brawl at the end of the Spanish Super Cup Second Leg was a shame, as it masked the clear improvement in Mourinho's side. Efficiency was the only thing that held back Real Madrid from victory last night, Barcelona on the other hand were relatively ruthless.

The facts of the match state that Real Madrid took the majority of possession in both games, Real Madrid created the most chances in both games, and Real Madrid were the better side in both games. The difference some have argued was Leo Messi and perhaps that is the only difference between Barcelona and the other teams in the world. Only a 2-3 month injury to Messi will provide enough evidence for that theory.

Mourinho pushed his team up, especially during Barcelona goal kicks. Forcing Valdes to kick long and lose the ball to the taller Madrid midfielders. This was remarkably effective in stifling Barcelona's passing style, there was never enough space.

The gap has closed and Madrid ought to get a lot more points against the other 18 teams than they did last year.

Weaknesses in Madrid's side consist of wastefulness, poor discipline and a keeper who can't kick a football.

Sergio Aguero - Great debut, but...

Sergio Aguero stole a lot of headlines from Cesc Fabregas' Barcelona move due to Kun's dominant display, 2 goals and an assist for the increasingly popular David Silva.

A great debut? Yes, but coming on with your team leading at home with 30 minutes to go against a side that are the favourites to be relegated in their first Premier League game is hardly the toughest test a debutant has ever had.

The league and the footballing world is full of 'flat-track bullies', but teams need match winners. In the short term Man City have a tough test at Bolton and an even tougher test at Tottenham, we'll learn a lot more about Aguero's credentials as a match winner in these games.

Premier League 2011/12 Gameweek 1 Results

Having staked £90 on the opening 9 Premiership games, I achieved a profit of £96.

Bets Placed: 9
Bets Won: 5
Bets Lost: 4
Total Profit: £96
Return: 106.67%

Premier League 2011/12 - Gameweek 1

£10 on each game to be a draw:
Blackburn-Wolves @ 12/5
Fulham-Villa @ 5/2
Liverpool-Sunderland @ 17/5
QPR-Bolton @ 23/10
Wigan-Norwich @ 12/5
Newcastle-Arsenal @ 5/2
Stoke-Chelsea @ 14/5
West Brom-Man Utd @ 10/3
Man City-Swansea @ 5/1

Nine £10 bets, so £90 staked in total.

Level 3 vs Level 4

The previous post described levels of gamblers. This post aims to illustrate the difference in success between level 3 betting and level 4 betting.

In truth we will be using level 5 betting to illustrate the point, because the probabilities calculated are done via a model. The sample is the 760 Premier League matches from the 2009/10 and 2010/11 seasons.

Level 3: Betting on the event with the highest probability of occurring.

Matches Played: 760
Bets Void: 6
Bets Won: 369
Bets Lost: 385
Total Profit/(Loss): (£335.09)

Note: Void Bets refer to outcomes which had the highest probability of selection e.g. 40% chance of Draw, 40% chance of Home Win, 20% chance of Away Win. These matches were void. £10 Stakes were used.

Level 4: Betting on the event with the highest expectation.

Matches Played: 760
Bets Void: 15
Bets Won: 306
Bets Lost: 439
Total Profit/(Loss): £935.39

Note: Void Bets refer to matches where there is no positive value in all three outcomes. £10 Stakes were used.

Things to note here are that the second method produces a significant profit, even though the percentage of bets won in level 4 is less than in level 3. By seeking value instead of seeking the most likely result we are able to make more money!

Levels

In betting there are levels of gamblers.

Level 1 is a gambler who simply bets at random. They have no thought process when selecting a bet, they simply choose at random. For example, lucky dip in the lottery, picking a horse out of a hat, or at very best based on their favourite name. Now this plays to the house clearly, because in the long term the odds favour them. The profit is made by non-frequent gamblers who “strike it lucky”.

Level 2 is a gambler who bets on partisan. Very often a level 2 gambler will make bigger losses than a level 1 gambler. By partisan betting, I mean that the gambler selects their favourite player, team, horse etc to win. For example, football fans who bet on their team to win, or their rival team to lose. The phenomenon of reverse-partisan betting also comes under this umbrella, where the gambler selects against what they want to happen so that they hedge their utility, i.e. if my team wins I am happy, if my team doesn’t win, I make some money so I am also happy. In general, only a lucky few make money betting this way.

Level 3 gamblers are those who bet on probability, they decide what they believe is most likely to happen and select this outcome. At first sight this doesn’t seem like a bad way to go, but there is often a disregard for the price being offered. There is a large amount of bias in this method too, with level 2 partisan thinking coming into play when these on the spot probabilities are calculated. Often the gambler will not even think of the selection in terms of probability. For example, “Chelsea vs Blackpool, Chelsea will definitely win” compared to “Chelsea vs Blackpool, Chelsea would probably win 90 times out of 100”. Either way, this method rarely goes against the favourite and this plays right into the bookies hands.

Level 4 gamblers are those who bet on value, they decide what the probability of an event is and then look at the prices being offered to see if the price is understated or overstated. For example, I think the Haye vs Klitschko fight is 50/50, therefore I would look at evens as the base price and bet on the fighter priced above evens, in this case David Haye. In general, this is as sophisticated as your gambler gets. They won’t calculate the probabilities any differently to a level 3 gambler, the only difference is that they won’t select the most likely event, rather they will take into account the prices being offered and go for the best value. There are types of level 4 gamblers, some will look to back the most likely outcome and only back it if the price is good enough, if it isn’t good enough then they will not bet at all, or strangely they will place the selection in an accumulator to get a perceived higher value. This flawed logic will often lead to a string of poor value bets rather than one good value bet.

Level 5 gamblers actively create models in an attempt to accurately assess probability. They then use these probabilities to judge the value of a particular bet and select based on the highest expectation. The largest difficulty with this method is the ability to incorporate all the variables into a model. This is in practice impossible without introducing bias. For example how do you assess the impact of a Kolo Toure drug ban on Man City’s probability of winning a football match. The result is a series of crude models which constantly adapt to absorb past data and weight them accurately. This means that the models are a representation of the past rather than an accurate forecasting method. Nevertheless through experience of using models you are able to identify trends and evolve the model to accurately represent probabilities.

There is a level 6 gambler, but there is an argument of whether this level of gambler counts as a gambler at all. They seek arbitrage. They will identify opportunities where they can make risk free profit, these opportunities are not as rare as you might think but are obviously rarer than the level 5 good value bets. So the amount of profit will be limited compared to the possibilities of level 5 gambling but this is at the benefit of risk free profits.

What If?

I often get asked in various forums, What If....?

In this case I shall be exploring, What if I backed the outsider in each Premiership game?

Well if you put £10 on every outsider in the 760 games from the 09/10 and 10/11 seasons:

Total Matches: 760
Bets Void: 15
Bets Won: 144
Bets Lost: 601
Total Profit/(Loss): (£704.17)

The void bets refer to matches where there is no outsider, i.e. the odds for the draw are the same as the odds for the outside winner.

So a big fat loss.

However, let's split this up a little, 09/10, 380 games:

Total Matches: 380
Bets Void: 8
Bets Won: 67
Bets Lost: 305
Total Profit/(Loss): (£647)

Which leaves the loss for the 10/11 season at £57.17.

It may appear clear then that backing the outsider is fruitless.

To find the fruit we must take a look at the home, draw, away splits:

Away Outsider:

£907.50 loss in 09/10
£110.67 loss in 10/11
£1018.17 loss in total.

Draw Outsider:

£49.50 loss in 09/10
£7.00 loss in 10/11
£56.50 loss in total.

Home Outsider:
£310.00 profit in 09/10
£60.50 profit in 10/11
£370.50 profit in total.

So if you look beyond the headline numbers, there is evidence that backing the home outsider is profitable!

Season Betting Summary

The numbers in the above table relate to the profit/loss that you would make on each Premiership team in the 2010/11 season.

For example if you put £10 on Arsenal to lose each Home league game in the 10/11 season you would have made £230 profit.

Note: £10 stakes, odds taken from a single bookmaker therefore profits could be improved.

Next Year's New Year's Resolution

As soon as the ball drops and the new year arrives, just stay home and, more importantly, don't go away!

Last Season after the New Year:
184 Games: 93 Home Wins, 49 Draws, 42 Away Wins

If you put £10 stakes on the Home team to win each game:
Bets Won: 93
Bets Lost: 91
Total Profit: £73.80

If you put £10 stakes on the Draw each game:
Bets Won: 49
Bets Lost: 135
Total Profit: - £56

If you put £10 stakes on the Away team to win each game:
Bets Won: 42
Bets Lost: 142
Total Profit: - £664.19

This Season after the New Year:
108 Games: 55 Home Wins, 29 Draws, 24 Away Wins

If you put £10 stakes on the Home team to win each game:
Bets Won: 55
Bets Lost: 53
Total Profit: £120.40

If you put £10 stakes on the Draw each game:
Bets Won: 29
Bets Lost: 79
Total Profit: - £15.50

If you put £10 stakes on the Away team to win each game:
Bets Won: 24
Bets Lost: 84
Total Profit: - £452.05