We've just had our worst day yet, and it has led to a loss of £30.47 today, but we can't always win and our total profit 5 days in is £169.66.
In brighter news the Australia theory pulled through and the bet of the day came through too making it 5 out of 5 and a total profit from the bet of the day of £238.34.
Wednesday 30 June 2010
Stick to the strategy
We enter the 4th ODI between England and Australia still with the belief that Australia do not lose 5-0. So we back Australia today at 10/11 with 2.2 times our standard stake.
Onto the Men's Quarter Finals, and we'll back Yen-Hsun Lu at 5/1, Federer at 2/9, Murray at 2/7, and Nadal at 4/6. Put your standard on each, except for the bet of the day, Nadal to beat Soderling. Put 10 times your stake on that one.
Back the Williams' sisters to beat Vesnina/Zvonareva at 1/10, the Bryan twins to beat Moodie/Norman at 1/7. Put 5 times your standard on each.
Onto the Men's Quarter Finals, and we'll back Yen-Hsun Lu at 5/1, Federer at 2/9, Murray at 2/7, and Nadal at 4/6. Put your standard on each, except for the bet of the day, Nadal to beat Soderling. Put 10 times your stake on that one.
Back the Williams' sisters to beat Vesnina/Zvonareva at 1/10, the Bryan twins to beat Moodie/Norman at 1/7. Put 5 times your standard on each.
Tuesday 29 June 2010
Do you love me yet?
Day 4 has seen us go from £92.90 profit to £200.13 profit.
We can thank the bet of the day for most of it, 4 out of 4, with a total profit of £171.67.
We can thank the bet of the day for most of it, 4 out of 4, with a total profit of £171.67.
Spain are still the cream
The Ladies' quarter finals take place today and back Zvonarera at 7/2, V Williams at 1/8, S Williams at 1/5 and Kvitova at 4/6. Put your standard on each.
Also take the 1/9 on the Bryan twins to beat Ball/Guccione. Put 5 times your standard on it.
At 1/50, this may seem a ridiculous tip, but 2% return for little to no risk is still good. So take the 1/50 on South Africa to wrap up the test match against the West Indies. I'd put 10 times your stake on it, but we won't call it the bet of the day. You expect more.
On to the world cup games and nearly everyone I've spoken to have been impressed with Japan. I am quick to mention that Paraguay were also impressive in their group, but I'll still back Japan in this one. Put your standard on Japan to qualify at 6/4.
Now I am still backing Holland, but it is hard to deny that the best international team of the last 4 years have been Spain. They are the cream of the crop and, unless Ronaldo puts on a show, this will be too easy for Spain.
We can take Spain to keep a clean sheet at 13/10. Put 2 times your standard on that.
And finally the bet of the day is Spain to qualify at 1/2. As always put 10 times your stake on it.
Also take the 1/9 on the Bryan twins to beat Ball/Guccione. Put 5 times your standard on it.
At 1/50, this may seem a ridiculous tip, but 2% return for little to no risk is still good. So take the 1/50 on South Africa to wrap up the test match against the West Indies. I'd put 10 times your stake on it, but we won't call it the bet of the day. You expect more.
On to the world cup games and nearly everyone I've spoken to have been impressed with Japan. I am quick to mention that Paraguay were also impressive in their group, but I'll still back Japan in this one. Put your standard on Japan to qualify at 6/4.
Now I am still backing Holland, but it is hard to deny that the best international team of the last 4 years have been Spain. They are the cream of the crop and, unless Ronaldo puts on a show, this will be too easy for Spain.
We can take Spain to keep a clean sheet at 13/10. Put 2 times your standard on that.
And finally the bet of the day is Spain to qualify at 1/2. As always put 10 times your stake on it.
Monday 28 June 2010
Betting Summary after Day 3
I've been giving tips for 3 days now and here's a summary of how I have done:
I have given 29 tips:
1 bet was void as Zvonareva beat Jankovic who retired injured a set down and 3-0 down in the second set. It is annoying but it works the other way too.
1 bet is still pending, with Ghana at 5/1 to be knocked out in the Semis.
Of the other 27 tips, I have picked 17 winners and 10 losers.
With a standard stake of £10, this has led to profit of £92.90.
I have given 29 tips:
1 bet was void as Zvonareva beat Jankovic who retired injured a set down and 3-0 down in the second set. It is annoying but it works the other way too.
1 bet is still pending, with Ghana at 5/1 to be knocked out in the Semis.
Of the other 27 tips, I have picked 17 winners and 10 losers.
With a standard stake of £10, this has led to profit of £92.90.
20 bets for the day
I'm bored today, a destructive gambling attitude. But I am going to pick the 16 winners of Wimbledon and the 2 world cup winners, as well as 2 other bets that may tickle your fancy.
Federer at 2/17
Tsonga at 2/7
Berdych at 1/8
Hewitt at 11/10
Roddick at 1/14
Soderling at 1/7
Nadal at 1/7
Murray at 2/9
Nothing bold there apart from maybe Hewitt, but Roddick apart there is decent value.
Na Li at 4/5
V Williams at 1/20
Pironkova at 3/1
Zvonareva at 6/5
Henin at 10/11
Wozniacki at 4/11
Kanepi at 4/9
S Williams at 3/10
Stick your standard stake on 15 of the 16, with 10 times your stake on bet of the day Serena Williams to beat Sharapova at 3/10.
On to the World Cup, and my favourites from the start of the 09/10 season Holland take on Slovakia. It was the moment I saw Robin Van Persie start the season with a bang that I thought the Dutch might just do it this time, then injuries destroyed his season but ironically he came back with a month to go and is now fresher than most.
So it may come as no shock that I am backing Holland to win the match in 90 minutes at 4/9 put 2 times your normal stake on.
As for Brazil vs Chile, take the generous 4/1 for Chile to qualify, so give that your standard stake. I'd give them more than the quoted 20% chance.
Put down 5 times your standard stake on the Holland Slovakia game NOT to go to penalties at 1/9.
Finally back Berdych to win 3-0 at evens, put your standard stake down.
So all in all, I have 34times the standard stake on today. That's how you pick up your Monday!
Federer at 2/17
Tsonga at 2/7
Berdych at 1/8
Hewitt at 11/10
Roddick at 1/14
Soderling at 1/7
Nadal at 1/7
Murray at 2/9
Nothing bold there apart from maybe Hewitt, but Roddick apart there is decent value.
Na Li at 4/5
V Williams at 1/20
Pironkova at 3/1
Zvonareva at 6/5
Henin at 10/11
Wozniacki at 4/11
Kanepi at 4/9
S Williams at 3/10
Stick your standard stake on 15 of the 16, with 10 times your stake on bet of the day Serena Williams to beat Sharapova at 3/10.
On to the World Cup, and my favourites from the start of the 09/10 season Holland take on Slovakia. It was the moment I saw Robin Van Persie start the season with a bang that I thought the Dutch might just do it this time, then injuries destroyed his season but ironically he came back with a month to go and is now fresher than most.
So it may come as no shock that I am backing Holland to win the match in 90 minutes at 4/9 put 2 times your normal stake on.
As for Brazil vs Chile, take the generous 4/1 for Chile to qualify, so give that your standard stake. I'd give them more than the quoted 20% chance.
Put down 5 times your standard stake on the Holland Slovakia game NOT to go to penalties at 1/9.
Finally back Berdych to win 3-0 at evens, put your standard stake down.
So all in all, I have 34times the standard stake on today. That's how you pick up your Monday!
Sunday 27 June 2010
Take A Bow, Jose Mourinho
Today we saw two awful decisions ruin two potential classics. The comfort at which these decisions changed the respective games has made me think once again about Jose Mourinho and his simply incredible run of over 8 years unbeaten at home in the league. He has overcome shocking decisions, injuries, sending offs, wonder goals and still installed a belief in his players that they will not be beaten. Love him or hate him, you have to respect his results.
As for Video Tech, http://www.thebinocular.co.uk/2009/10/06/video-technology-in-football/.
I've already said my piece.
As for Video Tech, http://www.thebinocular.co.uk/2009/10/06/video-technology-in-football/.
I've already said my piece.
Australia don't lose 5 in a row
England have taken a 2-0 lead in the ODI series against Australia, but the Aussies don't lose 5-0. So a three match stretch will see us in profit. Start with your standard stake on Australia today at 10/11.
On to the football, and we'll back England to keep a clean sheet at 7/4 with our standard stake. As well as the 1/14 on there being over 0.5 goals in the Argentina vs Mexico game, put 3 times your standard on it.
The bet of the day for me is the 4/6 on Hamilton to get a podium finish in the European GP this afternoon. As always put down 10 times your standard stake.
If you are feeling brave then back Mexico at 7/2 to qualify tonight with your standard stake. Mexico have passed the ball very well so far and will test Argentina's joke defence. Just plain good value.
On to the football, and we'll back England to keep a clean sheet at 7/4 with our standard stake. As well as the 1/14 on there being over 0.5 goals in the Argentina vs Mexico game, put 3 times your standard on it.
The bet of the day for me is the 4/6 on Hamilton to get a podium finish in the European GP this afternoon. As always put down 10 times your standard stake.
If you are feeling brave then back Mexico at 7/2 to qualify tonight with your standard stake. Mexico have passed the ball very well so far and will test Argentina's joke defence. Just plain good value.
Saturday 26 June 2010
An easy route to the semis
One quadrant of the world cup draw sticks out in my mind, and it is the one that is being contested today.
Uruguay vs South Korea
USA vs Ghana
The winners will take on each other in the quarter final stages for a place in the Semi-Finals of the world cup. I don't feel many will have tipped an Essien-less Ghana, to have got that far. Nor will many have predicted that a team who struggled to qualify, Uruguay, will have made it that far. The USA were third in 1930 but haven't come close since, and South Korea wern't even expected to get out of their group.
This all in all makes it even more painful that England failed to top their group. Instead a potential Germany-Argentina-Portugal-Brazil route to the final lays await. This gives England the chance to exercise the demons of firstly of 96, then of 98, then of 00, 04 and 06 and finally of 2002.
But back to my actual point, the games today provide an option for an outside bet at this world cup. Uruguay are the favourites of the 4 teams to make it to the semi finals, but I would actually take the more realistic option of Ghana or the USA being eliminated in the Semi-Finals.
With Ghana at 5/1 at Coral and the USA at 4/1 at Ladbrokes . Put down your standard stake on Ghana and 1.2 times your standard stake on the USA for a win of 3.8 times your standard stake.
YES, I know it is laced with risk, what if South Korea or Uruguay knock out Ghana or USA. What if, USA or Ghana beat the potential Semi-Final opponents, Netherlands, Slovakia, Brazil or Chile. The reward is, for me, far too good value to turn down.
Another good value bet is the over 0.5 goals in the Uruguay vs South Korea game at 1/9 put 3 times your normal stake on this.
Finally, my nailed on bet for the day is Tsonga to beat Kamke at 1/4. It may just be the easiest money you ever make. As always put on 10 times your stake.
Uruguay vs South Korea
USA vs Ghana
The winners will take on each other in the quarter final stages for a place in the Semi-Finals of the world cup. I don't feel many will have tipped an Essien-less Ghana, to have got that far. Nor will many have predicted that a team who struggled to qualify, Uruguay, will have made it that far. The USA were third in 1930 but haven't come close since, and South Korea wern't even expected to get out of their group.
This all in all makes it even more painful that England failed to top their group. Instead a potential Germany-Argentina-Portugal-Brazil route to the final lays await. This gives England the chance to exercise the demons of firstly of 96, then of 98, then of 00, 04 and 06 and finally of 2002.
But back to my actual point, the games today provide an option for an outside bet at this world cup. Uruguay are the favourites of the 4 teams to make it to the semi finals, but I would actually take the more realistic option of Ghana or the USA being eliminated in the Semi-Finals.
With Ghana at 5/1 at Coral and the USA at 4/1 at Ladbrokes . Put down your standard stake on Ghana and 1.2 times your standard stake on the USA for a win of 3.8 times your standard stake.
YES, I know it is laced with risk, what if South Korea or Uruguay knock out Ghana or USA. What if, USA or Ghana beat the potential Semi-Final opponents, Netherlands, Slovakia, Brazil or Chile. The reward is, for me, far too good value to turn down.
Another good value bet is the over 0.5 goals in the Uruguay vs South Korea game at 1/9 put 3 times your normal stake on this.
Finally, my nailed on bet for the day is Tsonga to beat Kamke at 1/4. It may just be the easiest money you ever make. As always put on 10 times your stake.
Friday 25 June 2010
Word to the wise
The world cup is into the second stage and we have the knockout games to concern ourselves with.
The odds for the following teams to qualify are as follows:
Uruguay: 2/5
South Korea: 15/8
USA: 5/6
Ghana: evens
Germany: evens
England: 5/6
Argentina: 1/4
Mexico: 3/1
But if we take a look at another market within the same website, the stage of elimination we get the following odds for the team NOT to qualify (which ought to match the odds for the opposition to qualify):
Uruguay: 7/4
South Korea: 4/9
USA: 10/11
Ghana: 10/11
Germany: 10/11
England: 10/11
Argentina: 7/2
Mexico: 1/5
Quite clearly this doesn't give us arbitrage but it does show that even within the same bookmaker you can get a better price on your bet!
So word to the wise, it pays to do the research!
The odds for the following teams to qualify are as follows:
Uruguay: 2/5
South Korea: 15/8
USA: 5/6
Ghana: evens
Germany: evens
England: 5/6
Argentina: 1/4
Mexico: 3/1
But if we take a look at another market within the same website, the stage of elimination we get the following odds for the team NOT to qualify (which ought to match the odds for the opposition to qualify):
Uruguay: 7/4
South Korea: 4/9
USA: 10/11
Ghana: 10/11
Germany: 10/11
England: 10/11
Argentina: 7/2
Mexico: 1/5
Quite clearly this doesn't give us arbitrage but it does show that even within the same bookmaker you can get a better price on your bet!
So word to the wise, it pays to do the research!
Premiership Betting Summary
I have recorded the odds from the 2009/2010 premiership season from the same bookmaker. There are better odds available but for consistency and ease I have kept the bookmaker constant. I wanted to see what the total profit/loss would be for each premiership team if you backed them to win each game, draw each game and lose each game. I have used £10 stakes for each game and here are the results:
An interesting thing to note here is that for Aston Villa, Spurs and Wigan you can add the three strategies together and end up in profit. This means that for each game you could have bet on these teams to win, draw and lose and still end up in profit at the end of the season. This happens because the average odds of the eventual result for the games were above 2/1.
Another thing to notice here is that you could have made money on the champions Chelsea losing each game. OK, the profit is only £2 but like I said the odds I recorded were not the best around and this could have been a lot more.
There is plenty more to note here but I’ll leave that to the reader to engage with.
Here are the same tables but for the home and away games instead of all the games:
Home -
Away -
Again there is plenty to note, but I leave it to you to make your observations.
An interesting thing to note here is that for Aston Villa, Spurs and Wigan you can add the three strategies together and end up in profit. This means that for each game you could have bet on these teams to win, draw and lose and still end up in profit at the end of the season. This happens because the average odds of the eventual result for the games were above 2/1.
Another thing to notice here is that you could have made money on the champions Chelsea losing each game. OK, the profit is only £2 but like I said the odds I recorded were not the best around and this could have been a lot more.
There is plenty more to note here but I’ll leave that to the reader to engage with.
Here are the same tables but for the home and away games instead of all the games:
Home -
Away -
Again there is plenty to note, but I leave it to you to make your observations.
Wednesday 23 June 2010
The Big Four
A Quick look at the "Big Four", Arsenal, Chelsea, Man United, and Liverpool (perhaps no more but we'll take it from the start of the 09-10 season) shows us that if you backed each of the big four to win at home and lose away you would have come out on top.
That is 152 bets you are making, at £10 a bet you would get:
Bets won: 86
Bets lost: 66
This leads to £660 losses on the bets that you didn't win obviously but winnings of £1093.33 on the bets that you did win. This gives an overall profit of £433.33.
Just an added piece of info here. If you backed lawro's predictions on the bbc website for each premiership game he predicted, you would of had £184.77 profit (with £10 stakes).
That is 152 bets you are making, at £10 a bet you would get:
Bets won: 86
Bets lost: 66
This leads to £660 losses on the bets that you didn't win obviously but winnings of £1093.33 on the bets that you did win. This gives an overall profit of £433.33.
Just an added piece of info here. If you backed lawro's predictions on the bbc website for each premiership game he predicted, you would of had £184.77 profit (with £10 stakes).
Tuesday 22 June 2010
Did Arsenal stun the Bookies?
The league season is over and we can now take a look at Arsenal's form at the bookies this year:
We will use £10 stakes for each game.
Betting on Arsenal to win each league game this season:
Loss of £31.23
Betting on Arsenal to draw each league game this season:
Loss of £140
Betting on Arsenal to lose each league game this season:
Loss of £63.75
This indicates what we all suspect about the bookies, that they tend to get it right most of the time!
But if we extend this to Home and Away games:
Betting on Arsenal to win each home league game this season:
Profit of £8.38
Betting on Arsenal to draw each home league game this season:
Loss of £110
Betting on Arsenal to lose each home league game this season:
Loss of £135
Betting on Arsenal to win each away league game this season:
Loss of £39.61
Betting on Arsenal to draw each away league game this season:
Loss of £30
Betting on Arsenal to lose each away league game this season:
Profit of £71.25
OK, so the profit on home league wins is marginal, and the profit on losing away from home can mainly stem from the two late defeats to Wigan and Blackburn, but those are the raw numbers. Make of them what you will.
You can be more sensible, more flexible and more acute with your selections. For example, betting without the Top 6.
We will use £10 stakes for each game.
Betting on Arsenal to win each league game this season:
Loss of £31.23
Betting on Arsenal to draw each league game this season:
Loss of £140
Betting on Arsenal to lose each league game this season:
Loss of £63.75
This indicates what we all suspect about the bookies, that they tend to get it right most of the time!
But if we extend this to Home and Away games:
Betting on Arsenal to win each home league game this season:
Profit of £8.38
Betting on Arsenal to draw each home league game this season:
Loss of £110
Betting on Arsenal to lose each home league game this season:
Loss of £135
Betting on Arsenal to win each away league game this season:
Loss of £39.61
Betting on Arsenal to draw each away league game this season:
Loss of £30
Betting on Arsenal to lose each away league game this season:
Profit of £71.25
OK, so the profit on home league wins is marginal, and the profit on losing away from home can mainly stem from the two late defeats to Wigan and Blackburn, but those are the raw numbers. Make of them what you will.
You can be more sensible, more flexible and more acute with your selections. For example, betting without the Top 6.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)