Wednesday 17 April 2013

Are Liverpool the best bet in the Premier League?

Let's keep this simple, Liverpool have played 109 league games since the start of the 2010/11 season.

If I bet on Liverpool to win every game (£100 stake):

I would have lost £1850

If I bet on Liverpool to draw every game (£100 stake):

I would have won £190

If I bet on Liverpool to lose every game (£100 stake):

I would have won £5190

Total of these equals £3530 profit. (all numbers rounded to the pound)

Now obviously just betting on Liverpool to lose would have been the most profitable, but the key thing to note here is that you could have bet on Liverpool to win, draw and lose each game (with a total stake, adding the 3, of £300) and made a significant profit.

This is a retrospective analysis and you would need to have foreseen Liverpool's relative demise to make this work.

That isn't the point, the point is to prove that the game isn't always rigged, the bookie doesn't always win, there are gaps to exploit and it mainly comes from expectation errors.

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