Premiership goals per game

The season is around the corner and I decided to take a look at the goals per game in the last 5 seasons.

0 Goals - 8.737%
1 Goal - 19.053%
2 Goals - 24.737%
3 Goals - 21.421%
4 Goals - 14.632%
5 Goals - 6.790%
6 Goals - 2.684%
7 Goals - 1.000%
8 Goals - 0.684%
9 Goals - 0.105%
10 Goals - 0.105%
11 Goals - 0.053%

What should we read into this?

Well it ought to help us with Over/Under bets, and for an example we will use over/under 2.5 goals:

Sum 0, 1, and 2 goals to 52.526%, let's call it x, and then do the formula (1/x) -1 to get the desired odds for the under 2.5. Do 1 over this figure for the over.

So we get:

Under 0.5 - 10.446/1
Over 0.5 - 0.096/1

Under 1.5 - 2.598/1
Over 1.5 - 0.385/1

Under 2.5 - 0.904/1
Over 2.5 - 1.106/1

Under 3.5 - 0.352/1
Over 3.5 - 2.838/1

Under 4.5 - 0.129/1
Over 4.5 - 7.756/1

Under 5.5 - 0.049/1
Over 5.5 - 20.591/1

Beyond this we start seeing sharp rises, but these are the minimum odds you should accept based on the last 1900 premier league games (5 seasons). Obviously each club is unique and the odds aren't uniform throughout the league, but if you can achieve average odds that better these then you should take them on value.